Counting! Among the first things we learn to do as children is count. Counting helps us differentiate one item from two, as well as three items from 20. Counting helps us understand the number line, distinguish between less and more, and comprehend bigger versus smaller.
The Simple Undetected Prevalence Estimator counts negative tests to determine the maximum possible underlying extent of disease that we could have missed. To understand this model, close your eyes and picture this: Suppose we have 100 hosts in a system of interest, and we take one test, which returns a negative result. Could there still be disease in the system? Absolutely. Now, suppose we take 98 tests and all come back negative. How much disease could still be present, yet undetected? You see the picture.
This model uses what we have seen to quantify what we haven’t seen. All based on counting.
The model is immediately available to state and provincial wildlife agencies in North America through the SOP4CWD collaboration (sop4cwd.org).
This new model is autonomously integrated into the CWD Data Warehouse.
Code to run the model within the CWD Data Warehouse can be found at the CWHL Git Hub:
